This publication was produced by Coordination SUD’s Agriculture and Food Commission (C2A) and written by Laurent Levard (GRET) with contributions from Carline Mainenti (AVSF), Emilien Capdepon (CCFD – Terre Solidaire) and Guillaume Compain (Oxfam France).
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 was followed by a rapid increase in world agricultural and food prices, which quickly spread to the majority of national markets. World prices reached historic records. The FAO food price index reached a level 20% higher than the June 2008 peak1. Wheat, maize and oil seeds were particularly affected. These soaring prices occurred in a context where world prices had been rising substantially since 2020. So, although the food price index rose by 20% in the four weeks following the start of the war in Ukraine, the previous increase from mid-2020 up to the start of the war was already 50%. Since June 2022, world prices have tended to decrease. In August, on average, they had returned to the same level as before the start of the war (see diagrams n° 1 and 2). However, the sudden increase of production costs should lead to agricultural prices remaining high for 2023. In many countries, it could also lead to reduced use of inputs and therefore a decrease in yields in the coming crop year. The decrease in agricultural production could, in turn, generate further price increases.
